International Relations Class 14

 International Relations Class 14

CHALLENGES IN CHINA-CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS(5:12 PM):

• The region is concerned with an inverse balance of trade as China- CAR trade is tilted in the favor of China, just like with most trade partners of China.
• Chinese nature of investment is extractive.
• Chinese treatment of Kazakh & Kyrgyz minorities along with Uighurs of Xinjiang.

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO):

• It was started in 1996 as Shanghai Five at Shanghai, due to its membership of five countries- China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan( the three CARs that share a border with China).
• The main aim was to establish peace at Chinese eastern borders.
• After Uzbekistan joined in 2001, it was called SCO.
• In 2017, both India and Pakistan joined as full-time members.
• Turkmenistan follows a neutral foreign policy and hence is not a member of SCO.
• Iran is the latest member to join as a full member in 2021.
• Its headquarters is in Beijing.
• It comprises two permanent bodies:
• The Permanent Secretariat at Beijing and the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS).
• RATS is headquartered in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
• The working of SCO is underpinned by the Shanghai Spirit
• The spirit has three pillars:
• I. Sovereign Equality.
• II. Domestic Non-interference.
• III. Decision by consensus.
• It also believes in non-alignment.  and respect for cultural diversity.
• SCO is looked upon by the West as a counter to NATO in the region.
• It is seen as an anti-West organization because it seeks to create an alternative political and economic order.
• In fact, India’s membership in SCO was criticized by the West as India joining an anti-west organization.
• However, India justified its membership citing the component of Non-Alignment in the Shanghai spirit.
• Unlike NATO, SCO is not a defense pact.
• Though India is a member of SCO, its worldview is not aligned with the worldview of India and China.
• The aim of the organization is to tackle the triple evils- Extremism, Terrorism, and Separatism.
• Observer states of SCO- Afghanistan, Belarus, Mongolia.
• Belarus has submitted its application to become a full member country.

Regional profile of SCO:

• It represents 1/3rd of global GDP, 1/5th of global trade, 1/5th of global oil resources, and 1/4th of global gas reserves.
• It comprises 2 of the P5 countries-Russia & China.
• It comprises 4/9 nuclear weapon states.
• The importance of SCO is largely similar to the importance of the Central Asia Region(CAR).

CHALLENGES FACED BY INDIA IN SCO (5:36 PM):

• India has to accept the role of second fiddle.
• After the prolonged Ukraine conflict, Chinese importance has increased.
• All other members support the BRI initiative in China.

Importance of SCO for India:

• India believes it can better secure itself against cross-border terrorism by leveraging SCO institutions.
• SCO can provide India with a very good channel to effectively utilize its potential in CAR in Security, Trade, Energy, etc.
• Russia- China-Pakistan axis- The growing closeness between Russia and China further aggravates India's concerns with the already existing China-Pakistan axis.
• The growing anti-west image of SCO due to membership of Russia & China.
• The recent entry of Iran and future membership of Belarus will only enhance this image.
• India's growing partnership with the West.
• For Example: The cooperation in QUAD is growing which complicates the balancing act of India.
• QUAD was revived in 2017, the same year when both India and Pakistan joined SCO as full members.

Terrorism & SCO:

• Controlling cross-border terrorism was the main motive behind Indian interest for SCO.
• SCO defines terrorism as “homegrown groups targeting political regimes in the country, while India defines it as” cross-border sponsored”.
• Also, India’s terrorist organizations of concern are Lashkar E Taiba, Jaish E Mohammad, Haqqani network, etc. while RATS does not gather information vis-s –vis them. 
• SCO, or RATS gathers information on terrorist organizations such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement( ETIM) and others operating in Central Asia which are not very relevant to India.

Challenges faced by SCO due to Indian membership:

• India- Pakistan rivalry may impact the smooth functioning of SCO since the decisions in SCO are taken by consensus.
• Recently in 2023, India chaired the SCO.
• It was however held in a virtual manner, probably due to the tense state of India-China & India-Pakistan relations.
• India may have been concerned about its image with the West because of the admission of Iran as a full member during the New Delhi Summit.

INDIA-RUSSIA RELATIONS(6:05 PM):

 Timeline of relations:

• Year	Milestone
  1971	Indo–Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation was signed.
  1993	India and Russia signed a friendship treaty.
  2000	We entered into a strategic partnership with Russia, and annual summits were started.
  2018	The first and only informal summit was held in Sochi, Russia.
  2021	India and Russia inaugurated a 2+2 dialogue at the ministerial level.

• India-Russia relations are classified as a special and privileged strategic partnership.
• With the USA, India has a Comprehensive and Global Strategic partnership.
• With Japan, India has a Special and Privileged Global Partnership.
• India towed the American line against Iran, but not with Russia.
• India and Russian relations have withstood the test of time, despite sustained Western (American) pressure.
• Russia has expressed that till the time India is not in an alliance-based partnership with the USA, the relations will continue getting better.
• India will never sign an alliance with the USA as an ally, because that would signify the junior partner status of India.
• Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) has termed India-Russia relations as being the "steadiest relations despite all the conflicts in the world".
• There is no hidden agenda and both countries are genuinely interested in each other's rise.

Areas of Cooperation:

• Defence:
• Despite Indian diversification of defense imports, Russia supplies 45% of India's military hardware.
• 70% of the Indian arsenal is of Soviet or Russian origin.
• The relationship is not simply a buyer-seller relationship, but it has been upgraded to joint development and co-production; targeting exports to third countries.
• For example- Brahmos I exported to the Philippines.

Defense imports from Russia are important because:

• I. Russia has been the trusted supplier of advanced military equipment to India.
• II. Defence imports from Russia are an important deterrence against China, as China and Russia are both competing for influence in CAR.
• For instance, during the Ladakh Crisis, India reached out to Moscow to expedite arms supply.
• It is India Russia close relations that act as a veto against ever close Russia-China strategic embrace.
• Similarly, Russia has the veto over too close India-USA relations.
• III. Military cooperation between India and Russia is privileged because no two countries in the world lease out nuclear-powered submarines.
• Except Russia, which leases out its Akula class nuclear-powered submarine to India.
• Only recently, under the next chapter of AUKUS, the USA and the UK have agreed to lease out such submarines to Australia until it is able to indigenously develop the same.

RUSSIA AS INDIA'S STRATEGIC PARTNER (6:40 PM):

• I. KASHMIR ISSUE:
• Russia in the past has used the veto on UNSC resolutions targeting Indian interests in Kashmir.
• Even recently, with respect to the abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of the state into two UTs, Russia was the first country to declare it India's internal matter.
• Other countries followed the Russian lead.

II. Oil Imports:

• In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, India has increased its oil imports from Russia from a negligible 0.2 % to 28% of its imports.
• In fact, India is refining its crude oil, and selling it to Europe.
• India has justified large oil imports on the grounds of the low prices at which they are offered by Russia.
• Ukraine has repeatedly accused India of 'having blood on its hands' by financially aiding Russia during the war.
• Indian imports have been very useful for Russia during the war as it is under a large number of sanctions.
• India wants to draw Russia into the Indo-Pacific region.

INDIA WANTS RUSSIA IN INDO-PACIFIC BECAUSE: (7:00 PM):

• We want the region to be inclusive and multi-polar.
• Russia is important for the continental balancing of China, unlike the quad countries which are primarily concerned about the maritime balancing of China.
• India and Russia are both continental and maritime powers with border disputes with China.
• 
• India supports a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific.
• Russia's Far-east coast is in the Pacific Ocean like Vladivostok.
• Indian and Russian aims overlap in this region as both want to counter China in the region.

Pieces of evidence of Indian efforts:

• PM Modi under the  Act Far East Policy 2019, visited Vladivostok during the 20th India-Russia summit.
• He became the highest dignitary to visit the port city.
• The aim is to develop the Russian Far East(RFE), and for it, India has provided a $1 billion line of credit.
• RFE is a resource-rich region with reserves of timber, hydrocarbons, minerals, etc.
• 
• However, Russia does not have the necessary human resources to develop the region.
• India with its abundant labor force can harness the resources of this region.
• China's growing presence is a matter of shared concern.
• India was the first country to open a consulate in the region.

III. Space:

• India's first satellites Arya Bhatta & Bhaskara were launched by USSR.
• USSR shared its cryogenic technology, important for Indian geostationary launches.
• even recently, Russia has expressed willingness to support India in its first manned space mission( Gaganyaan).

IV. Civil Nuclear Energy:

• Russia has established the largest civil nuclear power plant in India at Kudankulam, Tamil Nadu.
• While the West has been critical of the Indian Nuclear Liability law.
• The law held some part of the liability on the nuclear plant manufacturers in case of nuclear accidents.
• The Russian state has taken up the responsibility, if any such arise, freeing their PSUs to invest in India.

Challenges of India-Russia relations:

• Adverse balance of trade in favor of Russia.
• Economic ties( bilateral trade) are still low.
• Due to the opaque nature of the Russian government, we see fewer people-to-people connections between the two nations.
• The prolonged Ukraine war has caused doubts related to Russian capacity for timely delivery of defense imports.
• India also seeks defense diversification.
• Close Russia- China relations and brief good relations with Pakistan.
• From the Russian perspective, a close relationship between India and the USA is an irritant.

ECONOMIC RELATIONS(7:30 PM):

• India-Russia bilateral trade in the financial year 2022-2023 stood at $46 billion.
• It is in the context of large oil imports by India.
• Generally, India-Russia trade has been stagnant at $10 billion.
• Indian trade with Russia is its lowest trade with the P 5 countries.
• Both India and Russia account for around 1% of each other's total trade volumes.
• Both countries are absent from each other's list of top fifteen trading partners.

Reasons for low bilateral trade:

• Connectivity:
• India-Russia trade through the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea takes 40-50 days, compared to 7-8 days for Russian trade with Europe & China.
• Failure of India to operationalize alternative routes of connectivity like INSTC.
• Tough regulations on both sides discourage private players from engaging in trade.
• Sanctions on Russia after Crimean annexation in 2014.
• Few banking linkages between the two nations.
• The trade basket between the two nations is very limited.
• It is the defense export from Russia that has dominated bilateral trade.
• Sectors such as IT, ITES, pharmaceuticals, etc. are underrepresented.

Solutions:

• Operationalize alternative routes of connectivity like INSTC, Chennai-Vladivostok Sea-Link(CVSL), etc.
• 
• CVSL will allow India to access RFE in 24 days and the route will be reduced to 10,300 km.
• Early conclusion of the India- Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU) FTA.

• This will be a customs union, which will have no internal tariff and a common external tariff. The founding members were Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. It has also been joined by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. EAEU was founded in 2015 and FTA negotiations have been going on since 2016.

• To address concerns of adverse balance of trade which has only increased since large oil imports from Russia.
• Russia is offering greater market access to India in road construction and pharmaceutical exports.
• The two countries are exploring the use of local currencies and the Yuan to overcome Western sanctions.
• A former external affairs minister has wanted against over-compliance of Western sanctions by Indian firms trading with Russia.

Weak People-People Ties:

• For relations to sustain in the present era of ICT-driven globalization, strong people-people ties are important.

Defense diversification by India:

• The erstwhile Soviet Union was the prominent defense supplier to India.
• Presently, Indis is actively pursuing defense diversification.

• Time Period	Russian share in Indian defense imports
  2008-2012	80%
  2013-2017	67%
  2017-2021	46%

• Though a cause of concern for Russia, it is important to reduce overdependence on a single country.
• The importance is especially evident in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war and the consequent delay in the delivery of S-400 Triumf missiles.
• Also, there are concerns regarding Russian capacity to supply spare parts for Russian weaponry earlier imported by India.

The topic for the next class is the continuation of India-Russia relations.

QUESTIONS FOR PRACTICE

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1)

With reference to Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), consider the following statements:

(1) Turkmenistan is the founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
(2) The headquarters of SCO is in Shanghai, China

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a)1 only

(b)2 only

(c)Both 1 and 2

(d)Neither 1 nor 2

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2)

Which of the following pairs is/ are correctly matched?

1. USA-THAAD,
2. Russia- S-400,
3. Israel- AAD
4. India- Iron Dome.

(a)1 and 2 only

(b)2 and 3 Only

(c)1, 2 and 4Only

(d)1,2, 3 and 4

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3)

"Akula Class" is a categorization of which of the following entities ?

(a)Reusable satellite launch vehicle

(b)Nuclear Powered Submarine

(c)Ballistic missile

(d)High precision Drones

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4)

Consider the following statements related to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization:

1. Pakistan is the latest nation to join SCO in 2021.

2. Decisions are taken by consensus of the full-time and associate members.

3. It comprises two permanent bodies: the Permanent Secretariat at Shanghai and the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS).

How many of the above statements are correct?

(a)Only one

(b)Only two

(c)All the three

(d)None of the three

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5)

1. Corruption

2. Extremism

3. Terrorism

4. Money Laundering

5. Separatism.

Which of the above are the three evils that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will tackle?

(a)1-2-3

(b)2-3-5

(c)2-4-5

(d)1-4-5

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6)

Nation	The official description of Bilateral relations with India
Russia	Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.
USA	Special and Privileged Global Partnership.
Japan	Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.

How many above pairs are correctly matched?

(a)Only one

(b)Only two

(c)All the three

(d)None of the three

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7)

Assertion (A): Russia has accepted Indian clause of nuclear liability in xase of nuclear plant disaster.

Reason(R): Russia is the only nation which leases out nuclear powered submarine to India.

Choose the correct answer froim the codes given below:

(a)Both A & R are correct and R is the correct explanation for A

(b)Both A & R are correct, but  R is not the correct explanation for A

(c)A is correct, but R is incorrect

(d)Both A and R are incorrect

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8)

Consider the following statements regarding India- Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) :

1. It is negotiating a customs union that will have a common internal tariff and no internal tariff.

2. The founding members were Russia, Kazakhstan and Armenia.

3. Kyrgyzstan joined later.

Which of the statements given above is/are not correct?

(a)1 and 2 only

(b)2 and 3 only

(c)1 and 3 only

(d)1,2 and 3 only

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9)

What are the challenges that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization might face due to Indian membership (150 words/10 marks)

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10)

Do you think India-Russia relationship has withstood difficult times ? Give reasons for your answer. (150 words/ 10 marks)

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11)

Why do you think China has not been able to aquire a strong foothld in the Central Asia Region? (150 words/10 marks)

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12)

Despite good relations, India-Russia relations still have some areas to work upon. Comment(150 words/10 marks)

Answers
1) d
2) a
3) b
4) d
5) b
6) a
7) b
8) a

Q1.

India holds significant promise and potential existence since it became a member of SCO. In this context discuss the limitations that have emerged for India in SCO. (10 marks/150 words)

(10 marks)