International Relations Class 15

 International Relations Class 15

CHINA FACTOR IN INDIA-RUSSIA RELATIONS(5:15 PM):

• Political Disagreement:
• China has become Russia's 'all-round' partner and 'go-to country'.
• Russia-China political relations are said to be in the best phase ever.
• They have a "no limits relationship".
• They have entered into a Comprehensive Strategic Relationship for a New Global Order.
• Meanwhile, India-China relations are said to be at their lowest point after the normalization of ties in the 1980s.
• The two countries have been engaged in an active border dispute with their military forces eyeball to eyeball along the disputed LAC.

Military Cooperation:

• The Russia-China military partnership is also in a very good phase.
• Russia is selling advanced weaponry like the Kilo-Class submarine, SU-35 fighter jets, S-400 system, etc. to China.
• This will reduce Indian deterrence against China.
• Russian close ties with Indian prime adversary is a matter of concern in India-Russia relations.

USA Factor:

• India's close ties with the USA are a matter of concern for Russia, given the historical enmity of Russia and the USA.
• American aid to Ukraine in terms of $53 billion aid and A1 Abram tanks has further worsened relations between the USA and Russia.

Third Country factors:

• In the present multipolar world order, every sovereign nation is free to pursue diplomatic ties with other sovereign nations.
• Though India & Russia are close partner countries, our relations are not exclusive.
• However, being time-tested friends they can communicate their respective redlines.
• India-USA relations or Russia-China relations should not threaten the core national interests of Russia & India respectively.
• In fact, it is the close India-Russia relations that prevent the close strategic embrace of Russia and China.
• Similarly, it is because Moscow is a key strategic partner of India that India did not succumb to the USA and Europe-led secondary sanctions on Russia.
• Also, Russia, China, and India cooperate on various platforms such as BRICS, SCO the RIC trilateral on their shared concerns and common goals.
• Some of the shared concerns of Russia, India, and China are the restructuring of the global institutions of governance, and the de-dollarization of global trade.
• We can see this concern through SCO, BRICS, etc.
• In fact, the close relations between India and Russia have been recognized as 'distinct relations' by the USA.
• The USA has also expressed its wish to build such relations with India.
• As India pursues close partnership with the West without compromising its special relations with Moscow highlights India's mastery in balancing global powers.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR (5:45 PM):

• Russia annexed Ukraine on 24th February 2022, after UNSC met to dissuade Russia.
• By September 2022, the Donbas region (Luhansk & Donetsk) of eastern Ukraine, and Kherson & Zaporizhzhia of southern Ukraine have been annexed into Russia.
• 
• Russia has hence claimed 15-20 % of Ukraine.
• Russia claims that the people of these four regions wish to be part of Russia as per the conducted referendum, but the USA and West reject the referendum.
• Against Russian expectations, the war has entered its 19th month without any signs of its end anytime soon.
• Ukraine is supported by Western ammunitions and funds.
• The USA alone is said to have sent around $53 billion within a few months of the war.
• All the warring parties have taken/adopted maximalist positions.

Maximalist positions:

• Ukraine:
• It will continue to fight this war until Vladimir Putin is displaced and it regains its four lost provinces.
• It also wishes to get back the Crimean peninsula which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
• Russia:
• It will fight this war until Ukraine is completely defeated.
• Russia asserts that the residents in the four annexed regions will now be Russia's "citizens forever".
• West:
• It will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.

The present state of the war:

• The war has now become a war of attrition in which both parties are waiting for the other to tire out.
• Russia cannot afford to lose a war as it will cause a loss of face for Vladimir Putin.
• Also, Russia is too big a country to be defeated as such.
• The war is unpopular in Russia due to its prolonged nature.
• There are growing concerns about nuclear safety, especially of the nuclear power plants in Zaporizhia.
• There is a threat of nuclear war as can be seen with Russia suspending its participation in the New START Treaty.
• The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was an agreement between the USA and Russia that placed limits on the intercontinental range of nuclear weapons.
• Both the USA and Russia are threatening us with nuclear weapons.
• There is a threat of the use of dirty bombs, and there are reports of Russia using Cluster bombs.

• Dirty Bomb: A dirty bomb refers to a conventional bomb that will have some radioactive substances, only to contaminate the area.

  Cluster Bombs: A cluster bomb is a weapon consisting of a container from which many bomblets are scattered over wide areas. These are dangerous because they can spread over a large area (even civilian areas) and can explode even long after the war.

• The USA will also provide cluster bombs to Ukraine.
• There is a threat of direct conflict between nuclear-powered NATO & Russia.
• For example, Russian fighter jets downed USA's MQ9 reaper drones in the Black Sea because of mistrust and miscalculations.
• 
• Such instances can lead to unintended escalations.

BACKGROUND OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE RELATIONS (6:15 PM):

• Russia is apprehensive about Nato membership for Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.
• Ukraine is critical to safeguarding the Northern European plains.

Historical background:

• Russia has historically been susceptible to invasion, especially from the heart of Europe, except for its brief conflict with eastern nations Japan & China.
• So it is essential to guard against Western alliance.

Russia and Ukraine:

• Russia wants a pro-Russia or at least a neutral leadership of Ukraine.
• Euromaidan Protests November 2013:
• The decision of the pro-Russian Ukrainian President  Yanukovich to reject an EU trade deal for a Russian trade deal sparked protests in Ukraine.
• In Feb 2014, Yanukovich fled to Russia, and European forces were sent to Ukraine.
• The USA and European Union supported a pro-West leader getting elected in Ukraine.

Russian Annexation of Crimea 2014:

• March 2014- Russia in order to save its lost influence invaded and annexed Crimea.

Importance of Crimea/Sevastopol Port for Russia:

• Sevastopol in Crimea is the only warm water port for Russia.
• All other ports of Russia get frozen in winter.
• The Russian Black fleet remains stationed at Sevastopol.
• The Black Sea fleet is important to project power in and around the Black Sea.
• Russia earlier had the port on lease with Ukraine till 2042.
• Russia was apprehensive that a Western-oriented government in Ukraine might hamper the agreement.
• Crimea had 70% population of Russian ethnicity.
• Crimea is rich in fossil fuels.
• Crimean annexation would have made Ukraine less important for the West.
• The West would hesitate to include Ukraine which was deeply embroiled in a territorial dispute with Russia.
• 

Minsk Agreement  2015:

• After the Crimean annexation, fighting began among various armed groups in Ukraine which were pro-Russia.
• Russia also got involved.
• Ultimately, a ceasefire was brokered between France, Germany, Ukraine & Russia and negotiation began through the Minsk Accord.
• This all brought the relations between Russia and the West to their lowest point.
• Sanctions were imposed to push the Russian economy to the brink, while NATO continued its expansion close to the Russian periphery.
• Vladimir Putin pushed an imperial nationalist worldview that sees Ukraine as a part of Greater Russia.

REASONS FOR RUSSIAN SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION ON UKRAINE (6:55 PM):

• Security factor:
• Ukraine is critical to guarding the Northern European plains of Russia.
• NATO's Eastward Expansion:
• NATO's expansion as a politico-military alliance towards Russia.
• Since 1997, NATO has done 5 rounds of expansion, bringing within its ambit former Soviet states like Estonia, Lithuania, etc.
• 
• Any further expansion of NATO creates a threat to it being at marching distance from the Russian heartland.
• NATO troops are today deployed within 100 miles of St. Petersburg.
• Ukraine is currently a Partner Country of NATO, which implies that it will be allowed to join the military alliance as a full member.
• Russia however has insisted that the West should not allow Ukraine to join NATO.
• To protect ethnic Russians:
• The Kremlin has a law that imposes responsibility on Russia to protect and safeguard the rights of ethnic Russians in former Soviet republics

Global reactions to the conflict:

• The USA:
• It condemned Russia for an unprovoked invasion.
• It imposed a number of economic and technical sanctions.
• It brought resolutions against Russia in the UNSC, UNGA, UNHRC, and even WHO.
• It has supported Ukraine with all the needed support.
• In 2023, it expressed that it would provide Ukraine M1 Abram tanks, Custr bombs, etc.

Indian response:

• India has refused to condemn Russia, while only commenting that the present time is not an era of war.
• The remark was made during the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan
• India has refused to join the Western sanctions.
• India believes that dialogue is the only way to settle disputes.
• Indis criticized the Western policy of sanctions for fuelling F3 inflation- Food, Fuel, and Fertilizer, with a substantial burden on the global south.

India has not joined Western condemnation and sanctions because:

• The Russia-Ukraine war is a European problem and India is primarily concerned about containing the Chinese threat.
• India needs both the USA and Russia to counter China.
• Moscow is a reliable and strategic defense partner of India.
• Indian stand is a reassertion of India's strategic autonomy.

German Response:

• Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a fundamental shift in the German outlook (Zietenwende) towards Russia.
• Previously in 2008 Russian action in Georgia and in Crimea in 2014, Germany continued enhancing its economic interdependence with Russia.
• It increased its energy dependence and followed the policy of Ostpolitik.
• Under this policy, increased economic interdependence between Russia and Europe will strengthen political ties.
• It is believed that such a policy will be of interest to European peace and stability.
• However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Germany has taken the following steps:
• I. Stalled the Nord Stream II Pipeline.
• II. Supported numerous rounds of sanctions on Russia.
• III. Stuck energy deal with Qatar.
• IV. Provided arms and ammunition to Ukraine, like the Leopard II Main Battle Tanks.

CHINESE RESPONSE TO THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT (7:25 PM):

• China came out with a 12-Point Peace Plan/Position Paper on the Ukraine conflict which it released on the 1 year anniversary of the Russian invasion.
• This paper spells out the Chinese position in the conflict.
• It states:
• I. Sovereignty  & territorial integrity of all countries must be upheld.
• II. Security of a region should not be achieved by expanding military blocks.
• III. Wars benefit no one and all parties should support Russia & Ukraine to start a direct dialogue as soon as possible to gradually de-escalate the situation for a ceasefire.
• China is trying to portray itself as a neutral party in the conflict.
• However, the West has called it out as ‘Pro-Russia’ neutrality as:
• I. Strengthening ties between China and Russia.
• II. The paper has blamed NATO's eastward extension as the prime instigator for a Russian invasion
• III. It has either abstained from or vetoed the West-sponsored resolutions against Russia.

Similarities between Indian & Chinese stands on the issue:

• Both call for diplomacy without criticizing Russia.
• Both flag food-security concerns of the global south.

Differences between Indian & Chinese stands on the issue:

• Chinese repeated criticisms of NATO expansion.

Reasons for Chinese position:

• China has interests with Russia, Ukraine & EU- all the parties in the conflict.

Chinese interests with Russia:

• China has displaced Germany as the biggest purchaser of Russian oil.
• Russia has displaced Saudi Arabia as China's largest supplier of crude oil.
• China is alleged to be covertly providing military assistance to Russia, which China has denied.
• Moscow is Beijing's largest ally in its long-term aim of undermining the USA.
• China cannot overtly support Russia because it would hurt its relations with Ukraine & EU.

Chinese interests in Ukraine:

• China is Ukraine's largest trade partner since 2019.
• Ukraine is the third largest military supplier of China.
• Ukraine is the largest corn supplier of China.

Chinese interests in the EU:

• China has strong economic ties with the EU.
• It would like the EU to further strengthen its strategic autonomy to act more independently of the USA.

Chinese ultimate interests:

• Ultimately, Chinese interests lie in prolonging the war by engaging Russia in a covert manner without raising alarms in the West.
• The prolonged conflict provides a piece of valuable information for planning an invasion of Taiwan.
• Prolonged conflict will divert American attention from the Asia-Pacific.
• The weakening of Russia gives China a chance to increase its influence in post -soviet states.

Achievements of the Chinese 12-Point Peace Plan/Position Paper:

• European nations like France & Germany have expressed belief in the Chinese capacity to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table.
• Despite initially dismissing the plan, Ukraine has sought to discuss the plans to end the war with China.

Shortcomings of the Chinese 12-Point Peace Plan/Position Paper:

• The plan fails to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

The topic for the next class is India-Europe relations.

QUESTIONS FOR PRACTICE

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1)

Which of the following countries share a boundary with the Black Sea?

1.  Albania
2. Romania
3. Ukraine
4. Syria

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

(a)1 only

(b)2 and 3 only

(c)1 and 4 only

(d)1, 2, 3 and 4

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2)

Which strait separates the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara?

(a)Strait of Bosporus

(b)Strait of Gibraltar

(c)Strait of Dover

(d)Strait of Homruz

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3)

Arrange the following in the correct sequence of occurrence from east to west order.

1. Sea of Azov
2. Mediterranean Sea
3. Sea of Marmara
4. Black Sea

Which of the code given below is correct?

(a)1 – 3 – 4 – 2

(b)1 – 4 – 3 – 2

(c)3 – 4 – 2 – 1

(d)2 – 4 – 3 – 1

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4)

Consider the following pairs (Prelims 2023):

Area of Conflict	Location
1) Donbas	Syria
2) Kachin	Ethiopia
3) Tigray	North Yemen

How many of the above pairs are correctly matched?

(a)Only one

(b)Only two

(c)All three

(d)None

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5)

Consider the following:

1. Luhansk

2. Donetsk

3. Sevastopol.

4. Kherson

5. Zaporizhzhia.

Which of the above regions were annexed by Russia in 2022?

(a)1,2,4,5 only

(b)1,2,3,4 only

(c)2,3,4,5 only

(d)1,2,3,4 and 5

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6)

Which of the following is the best description of the German policy of Ostpolitik?

(a)Europe must be militarily strengthened to face any aggression from Russia.

(b)NATO members must not be involved in disputes of other nations.

(c)European Union members must not be involved in disputes of other nations.

(d)Developing good economic relations with Russia will be helpful for peace in Europe.

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7)

Russia-Ukraine conflict has now been referred to as a "war of attrition". What is the most accurate reason behind this ?

(a)Both nations have started using low intensity weapons to inflict less civilian damage.

(b)Both nations are taking explicit steps to depreciate each other"s currency.

(c)Both nations have accused external actors for the prolonged conflict.

(d)Both nations are continuing the war and waiting for the other nation to give up due to fatigue.

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8)

Consider the following statements: 

1. The Eastward expansion of NATO is the major cause of Russian aggression over Ukraine in 2022.

2. Ukraine initially accepted the plan but later it rejected the plan.

3. France and Germany are confident that the plan can bring peace to Europe.

Which of the above statements are correct regarding the  Chinese 12-Point Peace Plan/Position Paper on the Russia-Ukraine war?

(a)1 and 2 only

(b)2 and 3 only

(c)1 and 3 only

(d)1,2 and 3

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9)

Do you think India has balanced its relations with Russia despite USA"s objections ? Giver reasons for your answer. (150 words/10 marks)

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10)

Why do you think the Russia-Ukraine war is taking so long to come to an end ?(150 words/10 marks)

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11)

What factors led Russia to invade Ukraine in 2014 ?(150 words/10 marks)

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12)

What has been the Chinese position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022? What are the drivers behind such position?(150 words/10 marks)

Answers
1) b
2) a
3) b
4) d
5) a
6) d
7) d
8) c

Q1.

What are the challenges in India Russia bilateral relations? Suggest a way forward. (10 marks /150 words)

(10 marks)