International Relations Class 11

 International Relations Class 11

MILITARY COUP:

• Prior to the coup, under the 2008 constitution of Myanmar limited democracy was established with dual power sectors- the civilian elected government and the powerful Tatmadaw.
• This division of power was most suitable for India. 
• India could secure its security interests through cooperation with Tatmadaw, while its engagement with the elected government did not draw criticism from the West.
• India's national interest demands to engage with whoever is in power in Myanmar, but New Delhi finds it difficult to openly support the Junta government given the sharp Western sanctions against it.
• Security challenges-
• Especially in the context of the recent coup, though it was a repetition of the event of 1990, the reaction of Myanmar has been very different.
• Two and half years after the coup there have been regular large-scale protests, and the military has effective control over 30 to 40% of the Myanmar territory.
• According to a report, the people of Myanmar have witnessed 2.5 times more violence than those in Afghanistan.
• The consequent instability creates security concerns for India, for instance, the valley-based insurgent groups from Manipur are reportedly fighting alongside the Myanmar army.
• This creates concerns regarding the arms that these groups with stakes in India have access to.
• Also, the Manipur conflict between Meitis and Kukis is blamed on the ingress of refugees from Myanmar into India.
• The instability in Myanmar has resulted in over 54100 nationals of Mynamar seeking refugee in the Indian states of Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh.
• In fact, the government of India had directed these border states to close their borders and send back the refugees to Myanmar.
• However, since the people of the North East share close cultural and ethnic ties with the minorities in Myanmar, the state of Mizoram in particular turned down such a request by the central government.
• Groups such as the Chins of Myanmar share ethnic ties with Mizos of Mizoram and Koky Zomi people of Manipur
• Villages such as Longwa are situated on both sides of Indian and Myanmarese territory.

ROHINGYA ISSUE (05:42 PM)

• Rohingyas are an ethnic minority living in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.
• They practice Islam and speak a dialect of Bengali.
• Origin of the Rohingya crisis-
• It is traced to the 1982 Citizenship law, which recognized  135 ethnic groups in Myanmar while denying citizenship to Rohingyas.
• Though Rohingyas have lived in Myanmar for several generations, they are considered people who migrated into the country during British colonial rule.
• Their movement is restricted in Myanmar to Rakhine state alone.
• Other reasons for the crisis-
• Rohingyas are seen to be crowding out already limited economic opportunities for the Rakhine Buddhists.
• There is unsubstantiated fear of demographic inversion.
• Rakhine Buddhists fear that the Rohingyas will outbreed them to create Myanmar's only Muslim-majority state.
• Consequently, the Rohingyas have faced regular state-led persecution for instance in 2012, 2015, and 2017, forcing them to undertake difficult journeys on boat to Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, etc.
• They are thus also referred to as the boat people.
• Government of India's stand on the Rohingya issue (05:56 PM)
• It is estimated that 40000 Rohingyas are living across India and another 15000 have entered post the 2021 military coup.
• The Indian government considers them illegal migrants to be deported back to their home country.
• Rohingyas are kept in detention centers in India.
• Because India is not a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention of 1951 and its 1967 protocol.
• However, despite India being a non-signatory India has a brilliant record in providing refuge to millions of refugees.
• Why the special case of Rohingyas (06:03 PM)
• Security risk- India's sensitivity to terror attacks by Islamist terror groups.
• The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army has a definite Pakistan link in terms of training and funding, thus India fears the ingress of terrorists under the disguise of refugees.
• Conclusion:
• Though India is not bound by the UN Refugee Convention India should follow a humane approach vis-a-vis the Rohingyas.
• It would augment India's soft power.
• Rohingyas are the most persecuted group in the world.

CHINA IN MYANMAR (06:07 PM)

• Importance of Myanmar to China:
• Its natural resources- it is rich in mineral wealth, oil and natural gas, timber, and gemstones.
• China being a manufacturing power is interested in such resources of Myanmar.
• China uses Myanmar as its second coast.
• That is the Chinese coast to the Indian Ocean.
• Myanmar acts as a land bridge for China to access the Indian Ocean and help overcome its Malacca dilemma.
• Evidence of China in Myanmar:
• CMEC is one of the flagship initiatives of China's BRI.
• It lays down a dual pipeline that would carry offshore oil from the Aracan region to the Yunah province.
• The Letpadaung Cooper mines project was revived under the Su Ki government after being canceled by the USDP government.
• How China prevails in Myanmar (06:16 PM)
• China has relations with all important players in Myanmar's military, the democratically elected government, and ethnic armed organizations.
• It prevails through its deep pockets by investing in an internationally isolated Myanmar.
• By becoming Myanmar's dependable ally in the UNSC.
• Being a P5 country it has vetoed resolutions against Myanmar.
• By arming, training, and funding the ethnic armed organizations (EAO).
• Way Forward (06:20 PM)
• Two and half years since the coup, and with the military extending the emergency for the third time in August 2023- 6 months at a time, India should undertake credible steps to restore peace and stability in Myanmar.
• India must not hesitate to convey a strong message to the Junta expressing concern about the escalating instability in Myanmar.
• Exert pressure on the Junta to undertake decisive action toward achieving a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
• India should use its influence to open channels of dialogue between the Junta and NUG (National Unity Government) including EOS opposing the military rule.
• India should collaborate with other like-minded countries in the Myanmar crisis like Japan and ASEAN's five-point Peace plan should be evaluated.
• It would increase the effectiveness of Indian initiatives to bring peace and stability to Myanmar.
• India should prioritize humanitarian assistance and support for the displaced people.

INDIA- JAPAN RELATIONSHIP (06:41 PM)

• Evolution of Relations:
• 1947-1974 -Evolution of Relation- good people-to-people ties (cultural connect, INA) but tepid state-to-state relations (Cold War Politics, Closed Economy).
• 1974-2000 - Relationship deteriorated (nuclear test by India/ smiling Budhha/ SNEP - Sub terranean nuclear explosion for peaceful purpose).
• Japan joined the world in sanctioning and condemning India because of Japan's sensitivity to nuclear weapons.
• 1998- Pokhran 2- Operation Shakti, India declares itself a de facto nuclear-weapon state.
• 2000 onwards- relationship enters into the cherry blossom phase.
• First determinants of India- Japan relationship:
• Improvement in India- US relationship and Japan is an alliance partner of the US.
• India has undertaken reforms like LPG, the Indian economy performing well since 2000,  and the Indian market size has become a factor of attraction for the world and Japan.
• Rise of China and growing recognition of India as a balancing power to China.
• Lack of any historical conflict or strategic disagreement.
• A major milestone in the relationship:
• In 2006 India and Japan entered into a global partnership.
• 2006 annual summits between the two countries.
• In 2014 we entered into a Special Strategic and Global Partnership.
• In 2017, an agreement on the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
• Areas of cooperation (06:59 PM)
• Trade and investement:
• 2022 Annual Summit PM Modi recognized Japan as an indispensable economic partner of India.
• Reasons- Japanese capital is invested in several Indian startups.
• Japan supports India in mega-infrastructure projects in India.
• For example, the Mumbai Ahmedabad Bullet train is 1.08 lakh crore of which 80000 crore is to be provided by Japan as a soft loan.
• Japan has expressed interest in investing in other mega-infrastructure projects such as the Delhi- Mumbai freight corridor, Delhi- Mumbai Industrial corridor, Chennai- Banglore industrial corridor, etc.
• Delhi Metro has been built utilizing Japanese Overseas Development Assistance (ODA).
• India has decided on Shinkansen technology for its high-speed rails, which is a Japanese technology known for its speed, accuracy, and safety.
• Japan is the only country allowed to invest in India's North Eastern region.
• India Japan Act East Forum has enabled Japanese investment into North East India.
• Japan focuses on the development of roads, bridges, forest management, and capacity building in India's North East.
• In March 2022, Japan promised a 5 trillion yen target of Japanese investment in India in the next 5 years.
• India-Japan Clean Energy partnership was announced at the 2022 summit.
• India and Japan have a 75 Billion dollar currency swap arrangement.
• Serve as an important hedge against short-term volatility of forex or in case of BOP crisis.
• Defense/ Strategic Cooperation (07:11 PM)
• 2+2 Dialogue at the Secretary level.
• QUAD.
• Logistic sharing agreement- (Mutual Logistics Supply Agreement or Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement).
• Signed an agreement on Transfer of Defense Technology in 2018- it is an important agreement because it is unlike Japan to enter into such agreements.
• Presently the two countries are cooperating in the development of unmanned ground vehicles and robotics.
• In their 2022 annual summit, they agreed to go beyond these areas of cooperation.
• Global Partnership (07:17 PM)
• G4 as part of UNSC membership reforms.
• Both support global cooperation on Climate change efforts.
• Both support the de-nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
• Rule-based Indo-Pacific with freedom of navigation against a belligerent China.
• It is the context of growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, East China Sea, across the Taiwan Strait, and along the LAC, the two countries find it important to cooperate against China.
• And especially emphasize rule-based Indo-Pacific.
• The Indo-Pacific region stretches from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of America (Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean).
• This concept traces its origin in the famous Confluence of Two Seas speech given by Shinzo Abe in the Indian parliament in 2007.
• It was almost a decade later in 2016, in his speech in Kenya he coined the term Indo-Pacific.
• In March 2023, the present Japanese PM Fumio Kishida, unveiled Japan's 75 Billion dollar plan for a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), while on an official visit to India.
• He referred to India as an indispensable partner under Japan's new plan.
• Four pillars of free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) (07:29 PM)
• 1. Principles for peace and rules for prosperity- 
• Since under erosion of the rule of law, it is the economically weak country that suffers the most, Japan wants to engage in the economic development of such countries including the implementation of G20 principles for quality infrastructure developments.
• 2. Addressing the challenge in the Indo-Pacific way-
• Under it, Japan envisages the expansion of cooperation in areas of climate change, food security, cyber security, global health, etc.
• 3. Multi-layered connectivity- 
• Japan has identified south and southeast Asia and Pacific island states for undertaking more connectivity projects.
• For example, it has committed 100 million dollars to the Japan ASEAN Integration Fund.
• It will promote the Bay of Bengal North East India Industrial value chain in cooperation with Bangladesh and the New Palau  International  Project in Palau island.
• 4. Extending efforts for security and safe use of sea-to-air-
• Under it Japan will aid the development of capabilities of maritime law enforcement agencies.
• It would aid the strategic use of Japan's ODA.
• It is introducing a new framework for private capital mobilization-type grant aid.
• India's defense minister has identified commonalities between the India Indo-Pacific initiative and Japan's FOIP.
• Cooperation between G7 and G20 (07:44 PM)
• Presently Japan is the president of G7, while India is the president of G20.
• India is not a member of G7, but since 2008, the Indian PM has been often invited as a special guest to the G7 Summit meetings.
• Under both G7 and G20, Japan is supporting India's agenda of greater representation of the Global South and taking into consideration the interest of the Global South.
• Complementarities between India and Japan:
• Both are vibrant liberal democracies with an emphasis on the rule of law.
• Both have territorial disputes with China.
• China and Japan have a dispute over Senkaku Island referred to as Diao Island by China in the East China Sea.
• Senkaku Island was privately owned by Japanese nationals until 2012 when they were nationalized by Japan.
• Recently, post covid there has been an increase in incidences of the Chinese navy and airforce coming close to Senkaku island.
• At the economic level-
• Japan has capital, and India needs investments.
• Japan faces an aging population and India has abundant labour.
• Japan is a technology superpower while India is in search of innovation.
• India represents a large market. if Japan wants to sustain the present quality of life.
• Challenges/ disagreements between India and Japan (07:57 PM)
• Russia- Ukraine war Japan is a US ally and has joined the West to sanction Russia.
• On the other hand, given the strategic significance of Moscow to New Delhi, India has abstained from sanctions on Russia.
• In fact, India has increased its oil imports from Russia, from an earlier negligible 0.2% of its total oil imports to 28%.
• India Japan CEP- signed in 2011, rather than increasing bilateral trade, there has been a fall in the economic relation between the two countries.
• Also, India's trade deficit with Japan has increased over the years.
• Therefore India wants a comprehensive revision of CEPA, but Japan hasn't been forthcoming.
• The economic potential of the bilateral ties is yet not realized.
• China accounts for 24% of Japan's imports and 22% of Japan's exports.
• Whereas India accounts for 0.8% of Japan's imports and 1.7% of Japan's exports.
• Indo-Pacific region- Though both want a rule-based stable Indo-Pacific, Japan is concerned primarily about the maritime balancing of China, whereas India is equally concerned if not more about continental balancing.
• Japan is a formal ally of the US.
• In fact, both Japan and Australia within the QUAD are formal military allies of the US, whereas India has clarified its unwillingness to become its alliance partner of the US.
• Defense trade- Despite close strategic cooperation, defense trade is a troubling issue in bilateral ties.
• More than a decade has passed since India expressed its interest to purchase US-2 amphibious aircraft from Japan, but the deal has yet not been finalized.
• Also, India is interested in the Soryu- class submarines of Japan, but Japan hasn't bid for Indian submarine contracts.
• Asia- Africa Growth Corridor- It was launched in 2017 as India and Japan counter to Chinese BRI in Africa.
• However, not even a single project has been undertaken under AAGC.
• RCEP and IPEF- India opted out of RCEP in Nov. 2019 and opted out of the trade pillar of IPEF  recently.
• Japan was seeking to counter Chinese economic aggressiveness by cooperating with India under RCEP.

NEXT CLASS: Continuation of India- Japan relationship(Linchpins of Indo-Pacific), and India- US Relationship.

QUESTIONS FOR PRACTICE

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1)

"The time has come for India and Japan to build a strong contemporary relationship, one involving global and strategic partnership that will have a great significance for Asia and the world as a whole." Comment. (10 marks/150 words)

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2)

Examine various factors that have influenced and shaped the relationship between India and Japan. (150 words/10 marks)

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3)

Who are Rohingyas? Discuss the India"s stand on Rohingya issue. (150 words/10 marks)

Q1.

In the context of India-China rivalry, discuss the significance of Myanmar, and the effect of the recent military coup. (10 Marks/150 Words)

(10 marks)