International Relations Class 03

SHOULD INDIA SUPPORT THE DISINTEGRATION OF PAKISTAN? 

• Supporting the disintegration of Pakistan would go against Indian national interests.
• Pakistan is a dysfunctional state even today with widespread lawlessness.
• However, its Balkanization would lead to greater chaos and instability along India's western borders.
• A similar thing has happened with Pakistan because of the instability in Afghanistan.
• The situation would not be comparable to secession issues in Indian North East.
• This is because most secession demands in North East like the Greater Nagalim have died off.
• Also, secession issues in Pakistan- Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, etc. are due to Pakistani misgovernance and not due to Indian intervention.
• Internationally isolating Pakistan is also not a possibility because:
• I. Pakistan is a pivot state due to its location in the Indian Ocean.
• II. It also shares a long border with Afghanistan.
• III. It is located in proximity to important geo-political centers like Iran & Central Asia.
• IV. It shares an all-weather friendship with China which is a rising superpower with a revisionist approach.
• China and Pakistan define their friendship as ' Taller than Himalayas, deeper than oceans & sweeter than honey'.

Kashmir Issue:

• Kashmir is believed as the major issue between India and Pakistan.
• Pakistan is very invested in Kashmir because of three reasons:
• I. Occupation of Kashmir is as per the foundational idea of Pakistan- a Muslim-majority province would never choose to be with a secular India.
• II. Kashmir is very significant geopolitically because it connects Central Asia and South Asia.
• III. Kashmir is the location of many important rivers, especially Indus which drains much of Pakistan.

Some viewpoints on the issue:

• Pakistan seeks a plebiscite in Kashmir, as suggested by UNO after the 1948 war.
• India rejects the idea of a plebiscite because the demography has substantially changed and the present-day plebiscite would not reflect the original opinion.
• Pakistan seeks third-party intervention to solve the issue.
• India rejects the proposal as the proposal goes against the Shimla Agreement of 1972.
• Pakistan rejects this provision of the agreement as the agreement was signed after Pakistan was undergoing large loss and humiliation.
• India mentions that the Lahore Resolution 1999 also reiterated that India and Pakistan will solve their mutual differences only through bilateral mechanisms. 

SOME ALTERNATE VIEWPOINTS 

• Former Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee held that any solution must be reached only through Insaniyat, Jamhooriyat & Kashmiriyat.
• This would involve humanity, democracy, and the voice of the Kashmiri population.
• Former Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh gave the idea of having a Soft Border for Jammu & Kashmir.
• A soft border would enable free movement across the borders.

Gilgit History:

•  Gilgit was part of the princely state of Jammu & Kashmir but was ruled directly by theBritish.
• British who had taken it on lease from Hari Singh, the Hindu ruler of the Muslim-majority state.
• When Hari Singh acceded to India on October 26, 1947, theGilgit Scoutsrose in rebellion, led by their British commander.
•  The Gilgit Scouts also moved to take overBaltistan,which was then part of Ladakh, and capturedSkardu, Kargil, and Dras.
• In battles thereafter, Indian forces retook Kargil andDras in August 1948.
• Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir has had a separate constitution since 1975; though being indirectly controlled by Pakistan.
• Gilgit-Baltistan is directly administered by Pakistan.
• Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan had expressed that Pakistan wishes to give provisional provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan.
• This was done to maintain the "disputed " status of the region in front of UNO.
• Another aim was to reduce the concerns of China whose China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project passes through  Gilgit-Baltistan

• 

Siachin Glacier:

• It is the second-largest non-polar glacier in the world.
• it is the source of the Nubra and Syok Rivers.
• Nubra is a tributary of the Shyok River and Shyok River is a tributary of the Indus River.
• The glacier is identified as the highest battlefield in the world.
• 
• The root of the dispute lies in the Karachi Agreement of 1949.
• Boundary demarcation has been done only until point NJ 9842.
• After the point, the border is mentioned to go "northwards".
• At that time, defining borders after the point was believed to be useless because the region was not hospitable.
• Even the Shimla Agreement of 1972 omitted further demarcation.
• Pakistan believes that after NJ 9842, the border must go in the northeast direction to meet the Karakoram Pass.
• Pakistani description would make Siachin a part of Gilgit-Baltistan.
• India believes that after NJ 9842 must go in the northwest direction parallel to higher ridges like Saltoro Ridge.
• Indian description would make Siachin a part of Ladakh.
•  We saw events of Cartographic invasion and Oropolitics over Siachin.
• After the 1970s, Pakistan, along with many Western publications began showing Siachin on its official map as its territory.
• Pakistan also started giving mountaineering licenses to western mountaineers.
• In 1984, India knew that the Pakistani Army placed orders for high-altitude mountain gear.
• Under Operation Meghdoot 1984, India gained control over the Saltoro Ridge and the Siachin Glacier.

Concerns regarding Indian control of Siachin:

• Despite the region seeing no cross-border firing, India has lost many soldiers to the climate.
• Temperatures can go 30-50 degrees Celsius below zero degrees.
• Winds can blow as fast as 350 kmph.
• India incurs around 5 crore expenditure per day to maintain soldier presence.
• Soldier presence also affects the ecology of the region.
• Former Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh called for creating the region as a research area.
• Many scholars believe that the issue is without any purpose.
• Stephen Cohen believes that India and Pakistan are like two bald men fighting over a comb. 
• Some scholars believe that the Indian presence at Siachin prevents a two-front attack on Kashmir valley from POK and Shaksgham.
• This claim is contested as the terrain cannot sustain large troops' mobilization.
• Despite both Pakistan and India believing that Siachin must be demilitarized, the dispute is continuing due to mutual distrust.

THE SIR CREEK DISPUTE (6:05 PM):

• 
• India- red line- boundary should be in the middle.
• Pakistan- greenline- boundary should be eastwards of the channel, so it claims the whole of Sir Creek.
• The issue rose in 1908 for the first time between the Commisionerate of Sindh and Rao Maharaj of Kutch.
•  A Government Resolution of 1914 was released on the issue
• India believes that the Thalweg doctrine is applicable.
• As per the doctrine, the separation must be at the middle of the navigation channel( deepest point).
• Pakistan maintains that it is marshy and non-navigable, hence the Thalweg doctrine is not applicable.

Importance of Sir Creek:

• Fishing communities are affected by the loss of livelihood and they get arrested while fishing too far from the Indian coast.
• The region has significant hydrocarbons.
• The attackers of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks traveled through Sir Creek, as the region was under-patrolled.
• Sir Creek can expand the Indian continental shelf and we can hence claim more territorial waters under the ( UNCLOS).

Indus Water Treaty (1960):

• It was signed between Pt Nehru and General Ayub Khan and it was mediated by the World Bank.
• Indus Jhelum Chenab(Western rivers)(80% water of Indus river system)- Extensive rights to Pakistan, limited rights to India
• Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern rivers)- Extensive rights to India, limited rights to Pakistan
• 
• India can use the western rivers for limited non-consumptive usage to ensure no shortage of water downstream.
• India cannot build storage structures or large hydropower plants, but small run-off river dams can be built.
• The treaty also provides for setting up bodies to look after the related issues.
• The treaty could not be simply abrogated because it is beyond Indian capacity to stop the flow of the mighty Indus River and its tributaries.
• Pakistan has raised issues on many Indian projects like Kishenganga Dam, the Ratle project, etc.
• Pakistan also approached the World Bank to appoint an independent Commission to revisit the treaty.

INDIA-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS (6:40 PM):

• Probable questions:
• I. What is the Indian position on relations with Afghanistan vis-a-vis the Taliban? Examine the reasons for the same.
• II. Highlighting the significance of Afghanistan for India, compare and contrast India'a current approach towards the Taliban with its historical approach towards the latter.

Modern History of Afghanistan:

• Afghanistan represents a treacherous terrain where even angels fear to tread.
• History bears testimony to the fact that whenever an empire tried to conquer Afghanistan, it marked the beginning of its decline.
• Be it the Soviet Union, Colonial British Empire, or the current global hegemon USA.

Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan 1979:

• Soviets had propped up a puppet communist government in Afghanistan.
• As the USA grew apprehensive of increasing Soviet footprint, it started training religious fighters called Mujahideens along with Pakistan, to topple the communist government.
• By 1989, the Mujahideens were able to drive USSR out of Afghanistan.
• The primary reason was believed to be played by the Stringer missiles(shoulder-mounted rockets).
• However, the communist Najibullah government continued in Afghanistan.
• A civil war had started in Afghanistan which lasted till 1992 when the Mujahideen came to power.
• India despite its apprehensions, recognized the Mujahideen government and established diplomatic relations with it.
• The government was very highly influenced by the Pakistani establishment.
• Mujahideens soon started asserting their independence from Pakistan and started seeking good relations with India.
• Islamabad’s security dilemma vis-a-vis India continued.
• Therefore they chose to train another group of religious fighters in the radical  Wahhabi ideology against the Mujahideen, which later grew into the Taliban.
• A civil war broke out again in Afghanistan and 1996, the Taliban ousted the Mujahideen.
• The Taliban government was recognized by only three countries in the world- Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
• All three countries' elites have maintained kinship ties for a long time.

9/11 Attack on the twin towers in the USA:

• Despite being a  prominent participant in both world wars, USA mainland territory had never been attacked.
• USA mainland territory was untouched in both world wars.
• Even Pearl Harbor lay in Hawaii, and not on the mainland.
• More than the unprecedented human tragedy, it was a severe blow to the image of the USA as the USA by then had firmly cemented its position as the global hegemon.
• The global war on terror was launched by George Bush with the message that" You are either with us or against us".
• The USA chose Pakistan over India as a partner in the mission due to the inevitable role Pakistan can play regarding supplies due to being coterminous with Afghanistan.
• Osama Bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda was given a haven by the Taliban, and hence the Taliban regime was attacked.
• By 2001, the Taliban was ousted from Kabul, and Hamid Karzai was instilled as the interim President of Afghanistan.
• Taliban was removed from Kabul, but Taliban was not decimated and Taliban dispersed to various other parts of Afghanistan.
• Ashraf Ghani came to power in 2014.
• The USA was engaged in a protracted war in Afghanistan for almost 2 decades.
• Public opinion in the USA was turning against the war due to the high loss of US lives and resources.
• President Barrack Obama had distinguished Iraq as an evil war, while the war in Afghanistan was necessary.
• Donald Trump's election promises included removal from Afghanistan.
• The US forces were given a free hand to go after the Taliban, and Pakistan was identified as a key reason behind the prolonging of the war.
• Pakistan was told to mend its ways or lose financial assistance.
• Pakistan which was vital for supplies continued to share intelligence.
• However in July 2018, given the impending US presidential elections, as well as the failure of strategy reversed his position. 
• Insurgencies and non-state actors that enjoy safe havens are impossible to defeat.
• Thus in 2019, he appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as the special representative to Afghanistan with the mandate to end the ongoing war and withdraw USA forces.
• On 15th August 2021, under Joe Biden, the USA vacated Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani fled and the Taliban again occupied Kabul.
• On 17th August 2021, India closed its embassy in Afghanistan and evacuated its personnel.

Taliban withstood the assaults all the years because :

• Unlike any state, it is difficult to defeat a non-state actor, engaged in the insurgency.
• Such actors can get dismantled and regrouped any number of times at different places with maybe different leaders and participants.
• Pakistan, a major Non-Nato Ally continued to provide safe havens and leak intelligence.

THE ORIGINAL FOUR OBJECTIVES WERE (7:00 PM):

• I. Total ceasefire from Taliban till the USA withdrawal was complete.
• II. The Taliban must cut all ties with terrorism.
• III. The Taliban must be engaged in an Intra-Afghan dialogue for peaceful withdrawal and governance of Afghan later on.
• IV. Complete withdrawal of USA troops withdrawal.
• Taliban was adamant that it would participate in any Intra-Afghan dialogue only after the USA withdrawal.
• Finally, in February 2020, the Doha deal was finalized, and in September 2021, an Intra Afghan dialogue process commenced.
• However the process was completed earlier, and on 15th August 2021, the Taliban once again took over.
• The USA was perceived to be desperate for a quick withdrawal and seemed to accept any situation.
• Even while the talks were going on, the Taliban was not only regrouping militarily, but it also continued to attack USA establishments and forces.

Analysis of the events:

• As the USA was withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban continued with its military advances; the intra-Afghan dialogue remained at an impasse.
• Two days after the Taliban occupied Kabul, the Indian government closed its embassy and evacuated its personnel from the country.

Taliban 2.0 & India:

• In June 2022, India reopened its technical mission in Kabul to :
• I. Provide humanitarian assistance.
• II. Provide Visa and other consular facilities.
• III. To protect Indian investments in Afghanistan.
• India no longer views the Taliban as a terrorist organization but rather considers it as a quasi-official entity.
• This is because India has clarified that the Taliban itself is not seen as a threat to India.
• But the Taliban's ties with Pakistan-based jihadi groups like Jaish-E- Mohammad & Lashkar-E-Toiba is a cause of Indian concern.
• The government of India has announced that its foreign policy on Afghanistan would be guided by UNSC Resolution 2953, which was adopted during the Indian presidency of the UNSC.

KEY POINTS OF RESOLUTION 2953 (7:30 PM):

• I. Upholding human rights in Afghanistan.
• II. Afghanistan's territory must not be misused for terrorism.
• III. The negotiated political solution shall be found out of the Afghan crisis.
• India has provided humanitarian assistance to Kabul.
• India provided 50,000 tonnes of wheat, other items, covid vaccines, etc.
• India has provided budgetary assistance to Kabul of $27 million for the financial year 2022-2023.

Reasons for Indian engagement with Taliban:

• I. Security Concerns:
• Presently there are three security concerns.
• I. Security of Indian installations in Afghanistan.
• II. Prospects of an increase in violence in Kashmir as was during the earlier reigns of Mujahideen and the Taliban.
• III. If the Taliban remains a satellite of Islamabad forever, it can jeopardize Indian policy goals.
• It would only increase Pakistani geopolitical importance.
• None of these 3 concerns can be adequately addressed without limited engagement with the Taliban.

II. Changed International scenario:

• Almost all global powers have established communication channels with the Taliban.
• Though the Taliban has not been recognized by the global powers. 

III. To prevent the marginalization of India in international diplomacy on Afghanistan:

• UN Secretariat organized a meeting to discuss Afghanistan of what it calls the 6+2+1 group.
• It comprises 6 physical neighbors of Afghanistan –Iran, Pakistan, China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
• 
• 2 global players: USA and Russia.
• And Afghanistan itself
• India was conspicuous by its absence despite its security stakes in Afghanistan.
• Though the public reason for the non-inclusion of Inda in the 6+2+1 meeting was that India does not share physical borders with Afghanistan.
• However, India’s reluctance to engage with the Taliban has resulted in its non-inclusion in such initiatives.
• Taliban has occupied Kabul and holds the power there.
• India can not have communication channels with those in power in its immediate neighborhood only to its peril.

The topics for the next class are the historical approach and the way forward for India in Afghanistan.